关键字：IDC 平板电脑 Windows 8平板
“市场对平板电脑的需求依然强劲，而且，我们发现有越来越多的需求是来自于商务领域。” IDC移动互联终端资深分析师Tom Mainelli表示，“我们预计，到今年底前，主流厂商发布新品，价格日趋便宜，以及微软针对Windows 8发起的营销大战等将吸引更多的消费者添置平板电脑。”
IDC本次调整平板电脑市场数据，在上调了2012年出货量总数之余，还调高了iOS平台的市占率，并调低了Android的数值。iOS平台将从2011年的58.2%扩张到62.5%，而Android则从2011年的38.7%下滑至36.5%。同时，IDC预计，排在第三位的黑莓的市场份额将从1.7%下滑至1.0%。
“在3月强势推出新一代产品后，苹果iPad没有任何放慢脚步的迹象。” Mainelli补充，“第三代产品新增的视网膜显示技术及4G功能诱使现有的用户争相升级到新产品。而苹果调低iPad 2售价（入门级产品的价格低至399美元）的决定在市场上引起了热烈反响。如果苹果真如传言所说，于今年晚些时候推出低于300美元的7英寸产品，可以预计，苹果在市场上的霸主地位将更不可动摇。”
Source: IDC
IDC目前的平板电脑市场追踪报告里没有包括Windows 8或Windows RT系统的（IDC把这些归于PC市场追踪预测报告里）。不过，从下一个季度开始，IDC的平板电脑市场追踪报告将调整分类，以涵盖各种OS和处理器平台的平板电脑。IDC希望通过这样的调整，涵盖基于Windows的平板电脑，这样也便于客户整体了解平板电脑产业。
对于Windows平台的杀入，Mainelli 表示：“基于早前对此类产品的定价预期，目前我们仍然认为，Windows平台将极大地扩展目前的平板市场。Windows平板并不是在抢苹果和Android的饭碗，我们认为，微软的加入将做大平板电脑这块大饼。”
需要注意的是，调高平板电脑市场预测的同时，IDC调降了2012年电子书市场预测。因为第一季表现低迷，且很显然低价平板电脑抢食极大一块市场，IDC调整2012电子书出货量预测为保持平稳，从2011年的2820万台略降为2800万台。
IDC Increases Media Tablet Forecast, Expects New Products and Price Points to Drive Strong Shipment Growth Through 2016
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., June 14, 2012 – Expectations of strong demand for media tablets in the second half of 2012 has led International Data Corporation (IDC) to increase its forecast for the worldwide market to 107.4 million units for the year, up from its previous forecast of 106.1 million units. In the latest forecast update of the Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker, IDC also revised upward its 2013 forecast number from 137.4 million units to 142.8 million units. And by 2016 worldwide shipments should reach 222.1 million units.
"Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side," said Tom Mainelli, research director, Mobile Connected Devices at IDC. "We expect pending new products from major players, increasingly affordable mainstream devices, and a huge marketing blitz from Microsoft around Windows 8 to drive increased consumer interest in the category through the end of the year."
In addition to increasing the unit totals for 2012, IDC also updated its forecast to shift a larger percentage of future units toward iOS and away from Android. IDC now expects iOS to grow its share of the market in 2012 to 62.5%, up from 58.2% in 2011. Meanwhile Android's share will slip from 38.7% in 2011 to 36.5% in 2012. IDC expects third-place Blackberry to slip from 1.7% to 1%.
"After a very strong launch of new products in March, Apple's iPad shows few signs of slowing down," Mainelli added. "The addition of the Retina Display and 4G capabilities to the third-generation products clearly enticed many current owners to upgrade. And Apple's decision to keep two iPad 2s in the market at lower prices—moving the entry-level price down to $399—seems to be paying off as well. If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company’s grip on this market to become even stronger."
Chart: Worldwide Media Tablet Shipments Split by OSHistorical and Forecast* 2010 - 2016 (Units in Millions)Description: Tags: Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts
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IDC is not currently forecasting Windows 8 or Windows RT tablets in its Media Tablet Tracker (they appear in the PC Tracker forecast). However, beginning next quarter, IDC will institute several taxonomy changes that will bring all tablet slates, regardless of OS or processor type, into the Media Tablet Tracker.
"We’re looking forward to rolling the Windows-based tablets into our tablet forecast in order to give customers a complete view of tablet slates all in one place," Mainelli commented. "Our current thinking, based upon early pricing expectations for these products, is that Windows-based tablets will be largely additive to our existing media tablet market forecast. We don't expect Windows-based tablets to necessarily take share from Apple and Android, but will grow the overall tablet market."
While IDC increased its forecast for media tablets in 2012, the firm significantly lowered its forecast for eReaders in 2012. After a disappointing first quarter, and strong indications that low-priced tablets are significantly impacting demand, IDC now expects 2012 shipments to be stable at around 28 million units, down slightly from the 28.2 million units that shipped in 2011.