关键字：平板 Ultrabook
近日，IC Insights对其2012 IC Market Drivers报告进行年中更新，上调2015年PC整体出货量至7.83亿台，同时，2010-2015年间，PC总出货量年均增长率为16％。
图示为IC Insights按系统类型细分的各类PC出货量的预测值更新版。
受益于新的设计概念如触摸屏/键盘混合以及越来越多的企业使用平板电脑作为商用，2012-2015年间，平板电脑和笔记本电脑的出货量将显著提高。预计2012年平板电脑出货量将达1.1亿台，增长75%；笔记本电脑则增长11%到2.05亿台。
需要特别注意的是，由于Intel的Ultrabook、微软Windows 8对平板的支持以及越来越多的有别于苹果iPad的系统，PC各子类别的界限越来越模糊。混合型便携PC设计也正试图把平板电脑和笔记本电脑各自最强的功能都集合到Ultrabook中来。
2012年，便携电脑（含功能强大的笔记本电脑，性能偏低的上网本，以及触摸屏的平板电脑）出货量将占PC整体出货量的68％，略高于2011年的63%。到2015年，便携电脑渗透率将高达80％。便携电脑的出货量在2009年首次高于台式电脑，从那以后，便携电脑逐渐拉开与台式电脑的差距，而平板电脑的推出更是加深了此一差距。
IC Insights上调整体PC出货量的同时，也上调了电脑IC销售前景，预测2012年整体IC销售额将看高一线。2010年的个人电脑IC销售额为785亿美元，2011年同比下降2%至766亿美元，预计2012年个人电脑IC销售额将同比增长3%达到786亿美元。
IC Insights Raises Forecast for Tablets, Notebooks, Total PC Shipments
Forecast reinforces strength of tablets and solid potential for Ultrabook initiative.
IC Insights has raised its forecast for total shipments of personal computers and now expects total PC shipments to rise to 478 million units in 2012, an increase of 15% over 416 million units in 2011. According to the company’s Mid-Year Update to its 2012 IC Market Drivers Report, IC Insights forecasts total PC shipments will increase to 783 million units in 2015, which represents an average annual increase of 16% between 2010 and 2015.
A breakdown of annual PC unit shipments by system type based on IC Insights’ newly updated forecast is shown in Figure 1. New design concepts such as hybrid touch-screen/keyboard systems as well as growing use of tablet computers by businesses will significantly boost shipments of tablet and notebook PCs in 2012 and through the forecast period. Shipments of tablet PCs are now forecast to rise 75% to 110 million units in 2012 and notebook shipments are forecast to increase 11% to 205 million units.
It is important to note that personal computer categories are beginning to blur as a result of Intel’s Ultrabook campaign, Microsoft’s new support for tablets in Windows 8, and the ongoing efforts to differentiate systems from Apple’s iPad products. New hybrid portable PC designs supported in Intel’s Ultrabook roadmap will attempt to merge the best features of tablets and notebooks.
Total portable computer shipments (i.e., full-feature notebooks, less-powerful netbooks, and touch-screen tablets) are forecast to represent 80% of worldwide units sold in 2015 compared to 68% forecast in 2012 and 63% in 2011. Portable computers exceeded the shipments of desktop PCs for the first time in 2009, and since then, the gap between stationary and mobile systems has been growing wider. The introduction of touch-screen tablets has accelerated this trend.
IC Insights’ refreshed outlook for PC integrated circuit sales raises the projected dollar volume for ICs in 2012 due to higher system shipments. PC integrated circuit sales are now expected to grow 3% in 2012 to $78.6 billion compared to $76.6 billion in 2011, which was a 2% decline from $78.5 billion in 2010.